The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis in February, down from a 2.9% gain in January. Notable contributors to the deceleration included the indexes for cellular services, food purchased from stores, and Internet access services. Offsetting the deceleration was a year-over-year increase in gasoline prices, which rose 0.8% in February, following a 4.0% decline in January, reported Statistics Canada on Tuesday.

Karolina Grabowska

Excluding gasoline, the headline CPI slowed to a 2.9% year-over-year increase in February, down from 3.2% in January. Prices for rent and the mortgage interest cost index continued to apply upward pressure on the headline CPI, it said.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in February, up from 0.0% in January. The largest contributors to the monthly increase were higher prices for travel tours and gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in February, added the federal agency.

“Consumers who signed on to a cell phone plan in February paid 26.5% less year over year, following a 16.4% decline in January. The year-over-year decline was driven by lower prices for new plans and increases in data allowances for some cellular service plans,” said StatsCan. “Similarly, prices for Internet access services fell 13.2% on a year-over-year basis in February, stemming from a monthly decline of 9.4%. The monthly price decline was attributable to specials offered by Internet service providers.

“Prices for food purchased from stores continued to ease on a year-over-year basis in February (+2.4%) compared with January (+3.4%). Slower price growth was broad-based with prices for fresh fruit (-2.6%), processed meat (-0.6%) and fish (-1.3%) declining, while other food preparations (+1.4%), preserved fruit and fruit preparations (+4.0%), cereal products (+1.7%) and dairy products (+0.6%) decelerated in February.

“February was the first month since October 2021 that grocery prices increased at a slower rate than headline inflation. The slower price growth is partially attributable to a base-year effect, as food purchased from stores rose 0.7% month over month in February 2023, due to supply constraints amid unfavourable weather in growing regions, as well as higher input costs.

“While price growth for groceries has been slowing, prices continue to increase and remain elevated. From February 2021 to February 2024, prices for food purchased from stores increased 21.6%.”

Year over year, gasoline prices rose 0.8% in February, following a 4.0% decline in January. it said, adding that month over month, prices for gasoline increased in February (+4.0%) amid higher global prices for crude oil following expectations that some oil-producing countries would extend voluntary production cuts.
Katherine Judge, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said there was good news on the inflation front in Canada in February, with the headline pace easing by a tick to 2.8% y/y, against the consensus expectation for an acceleration to 3.1%.
“That included a softening in grocery store prices and cellular services, and price pressures also looked softer when excluding volatile categories, as the Bank of Canada’s CPI trim and median measures decelerated by two ticks each, to 3.2% and 3.1% y/y, respectively, while CPIX fell by 0.1% m/m and is now running at a 2.1% y/y pace. With ample evidence that higher interest rates are working to tame inflation, the Bank of Canada is on track to start cutting interest rates in June,” she said.

Mario Toneguzzi

Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024.

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