The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems fell by 2.3% month-over-month in September 2026, according to a report released Friday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
“After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September. This was hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada now widely expected to follow with a rate hike before the end of the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “With housing affordability already stretched, the big question going forward is how much farther will the Bank have to go to keep a lid on inflation next year? Until that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.”
September Highlights:
National home sales declined by 2.3% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 7.7% below September 2025.
The number of newly listed properties fell by 1.8% on a month-over-month basis.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged down by 0.4% on a month-over-month basis and was down 3.4% year-over-year.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in September 2026.
New listings resumed their downward trend in September following a rebound in August, falling 1.8% on a month-over-month basis in September 2026. Overall, new supply has generally been declining since early 2025, said CREA.
“In a repeat of what we saw earlier this year when the start of the spring market coincided with a jump in mortgage rates, the start of the fall market has likewise been met with an even larger jump in fixed rates,” said Garry Bhaura, CREA Chair. “While that makes the task harder for prospective home buyers as it relates to a mortgage, it will also likely mean more homes to choose from and more negotiating power. For sellers, a well thought out pricing strategy will become even more important.”
With the decline in sales only just outpacing the drop in new supply in September, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased slightly to 48.8% compared to 49.1% in August. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.7%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, noted CREA.
"Slightly more than 200,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of September 2026, up 1.8% from the same time last year and a little above the long-term average. The big picture is that overall supply has held steady at historical average levels since spring 2025," it said.
"There were 4.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2026, up slightly from this summer but right in line with the long-term average for the measure. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months."
The report said the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.4% from August to September. The monthly decline following four months of stable prices reflected a fresh step down for prices in Ontario where demand softened in September, alongside the ongoing moderation of offsetting price gains on the Prairies, in Quebec, and on the East Coast.
The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI was down 3.4% compared to September 2025, marking the first time that the year-over-year decline had grown larger since January. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $666,538 in September 2026, down 1.6% from the same month last year, it added.
Further information can be found at http://CREA.ca/statistics.
On Friday, CREA also updated its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices.
"It’s been another roller-coaster year for many of the factors that have the greatest impact on housing markets. In 2025, it was on and off tariffs and the related uncertainty for prospective home buyers. This year, it has been on and off inflation risks from a global energy crisis and its impact on borrowing costs," it said.
"Fixed mortgage rates jumped higher this spring following the start of the Iran conflict. Oil prices and the risk of Bank of Canada rate hikes, along with fixed mortgage rates, then cooled off over the summer.
"As of early September, oil prices were rising again amid a number of global capacity and refinery disruptions. Combined with a notably more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada, fixed mortgage rates have jumped even higher, and markets are now pricing in approximately 100 basis points of rate hikes by this time next year.
"The recent shift in fixed-rate mortgage affordability, combined with continued uncertainty around variable rates, has already shown up in the form of lower home sales activity in September.
"How far the Bank will ultimately have to go to rein in inflation next year is a major unknown; however, events already in the books since early September have resulted in a downward revision to the forecast for home sales, and a small adjustment to the forecast for home prices over the balance of 2026 and in 2027."
CREA said 444,530 residential properties are forecast to trade hands in 2026, representing a 5.2% decline from 2025. The downward revision from the previous forecast reflects lower expected activity in the final four months of the year. Given the main reason is higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty around how much variable rates will ultimately have to rise, downward revisions were spread evenly across all provinces except for Newfoundland and Labrador, where the market is still very active, it noted.
The national average home price is forecast to edge higher by just 0.2% on an annual basis to $681,681 in 2026, slightly lower but largely unchanged from CREA’s July forecast. The national figure in 2026 is the result of a decline of 0.8% in British Columbia, along with a larger 3% dip in Ontario. These are forecast to be just offset by ongoing but slowing price growth in other provinces, it said.
"In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units, with most provincial markets expected to see gains between 3% and 6%. This forecast is predicated on slow but positive economic growth, the resumption of higher population growth, and more certainty for borrowers around the path for interest rates which should bring more pent-up demand into the market even with higher borrowing costs," said the report.
The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.2% from 2026 to $689,909 in 2027, again little changed from CREA’s July forecast. Gains are expected to be held to below 2% everywhere but Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, though even in these supply-constrained markets, price growth is expected to cool to just 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. This forecast would mark the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark, added CREA.